BTC Price Estimation Tool via Decay of Growth Ratios Towards Zero Net Growth

- initial test version -

CHART.BTC.PUB

This projection uses bottom (peak-low) values of each BTC cycle as the sole basis to project the future bottom of each cycle, using rather simple math. The same math is also used for bottom-to-top gains.

Suppose for example the gains between bottoms are:

91.31x, 16.11x, 4.97x

We divide each by the consecutive to get the rate of change in growth:

( 91.31/16.11, 16.11/4.97 ) = ( 5.67, 3.24 )

This allows us effortlessly to find the next number (n=2), assuming the net growth will approach zero (i.e. a factor of 1) eventually:

1+4.67*(2.24/4.67)**n = 2.07

Now we can calculate the growth rate backwards:

4.97/2.07 = 2.40x

Those steps can then be repeated ad infinitum.

The chart is not absolute. You can drag the historic top and bottom points around to match them to whatever you believe to be a more accurate measurement than the selectable SMA range. You can match the points to the power law function (drag the first bottom lower) and mirror it fairly accurately. See what it does for the growth of the bottom-to-top gains. See how solid the next bottom prediction is, or how easily the model fails. There are many possibilities here.

I hope you have fun working with the graph and it answers some questions.

Please note that the date of bottoms and tops is NOT predicted, but simply repeated from the previous, or current all-time high.
Likewise it is not intuitive that the SMA goes backwards in time, but the historic tops are placed offset -SMA-days*0.5 on the chart to visually correct it.
The points only drag vertically, because the date has no effect on the calculation.

Naturally this is not financial advice, and no guarantees for correctness.